#ElectricVehicleTransition #SustainableTransportation #EVRevolution
Are you curious about what will happen to all those internal combustion engine vehicles once electric vehicles take over the market? 🤔 Well, let’s break it down for you! Once serious critical mass is reached with electric vehicle sales, there will undoubtedly be a shift in how we handle hundreds of millions of gas-guzzling vehicles around the world. So, how exactly will this transition take place?
The Rise of Electric Vehicles
The trend towards electric vehicles is undeniable. With concerns about climate change and a push towards sustainable transportation, more and more people are opting for EVs over traditional gas-powered cars. Countries like Norway and China have set ambitious targets to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles in the coming years. As electric vehicles become more affordable and accessible, the transition to a greener future is well underway.
How Will Gas-Powered Vehicles be Phased Out?
So, what will happen to all those internal combustion engine vehicles once electric cars become the norm? Here are a few ways we can expect to see the transition unfold:
1. Incentives for EVs: Governments around the world are offering incentives for people to switch to electric vehicles, such as tax breaks, rebates, and subsidies. This will encourage more people to make the switch, reducing the demand for gas-powered cars.
2. Increased Demand for Used EVs: As more people make the switch to electric vehicles, the demand for used gas-powered cars will decline. However, there will still be a market for these vehicles, especially in countries where EV adoption is slower.
3. Scrappage Programs: Some countries are implementing scrappage programs to incentivize people to retire their old gas-guzzlers. These programs offer financial incentives to trade in old vehicles for more fuel-efficient options, further reducing the number of internal combustion engine cars on the road.
4. Shift towards Shared Mobility: The rise of ride-sharing services and autonomous vehicles will also play a role in phasing out gas-powered cars. As more people opt for shared mobility options, the need for personal vehicles, whether electric or gas-powered, will decrease.
The Road to a Greener Future
The transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles is not without its challenges, but it is a necessary step towards a more sustainable future. By phasing out gas-powered cars and embracing electric transportation, we can reduce our carbon footprint and mitigate the impact of climate change. So, buckle up and get ready for the electric vehicle revolution! 🌿🚗
In conclusion, as we reach critical mass with electric vehicle sales, the transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles will become more apparent. With incentives for EVs, increased demand for used electric cars, scrappage programs, and a shift towards shared mobility, we can expect to see a significant decline in gas-powered vehicles on the roads. Let’s drive towards a greener future together! 🌎💚
The same way they got rid of their horse and buggy. Except it will be faster and more disruptive.
There are always going to be poor people who will lag behind in buying new vehicles who will own the old cars. There are plenty of people out there who have probably never owned a car with less than 100,000 miles on it and already leaking oil.
The same way people got rid of their old computers, old sewing machines, and anything else: they sell them as antiques and collectibles, and a few will be maintained just like the first airplanes. There will never be a time when nobody wants them, rather, they will become more scarce and valuable.
The same way all old and useless cars leave the system.
They get resold at lower and lower prices until nobody wants them, then get sold for their scrap value, taken to a wreckers yard and scrapped.
Most will go to the crusher.
Some will be lovingly restored and kept as collectors items in peoples barns that they bring out for parades.
They will have to get their gasoline from the tractor supply store in 5 gallon containers for $49.99
You would need to specify what critical mass means. For most people, it means when using an electric vehicle over its lifespan (10+ years) is cheaper than an old Honda civic, for example. Currently when I take my old Honda civic to a mechanic, every single one is envious and wishes they had one. Because maintenance is simple and parts are cheap.
The way electric vehicles are made now has very proprietary parts and maintenance which leads to much more expensive upkeep if anything goes wrong. Theoretically there’s less that breaks without an internal combustion engine and its high heat, but reality can be different.
I dated someone who had a Volkswagen beetle. She ran over a big puddle on the highway and her headlights went out. Because of the electronics in the headlights and their proprietary make, it cost $2000 *per headlight* to replace them. Unfortunately such stories don’t get into the media much.
Our market easily generates rent seeking behaviors from companies who know when there’s no alternative to parts. That’s why there is still a huge market for old combustion vehicles. I agree EVs are theoretically more efficient and better for the environment, at least if damage from lithium mining and other necessary ingredients are minimized. But we need a true cost/benefit analysis for the average person and their needs, especially in cold environments where batteries behave differently
Supply and demand tends to take care of this sort of thing.
If you need a car, but don’t really mind what you have, the total cost is probably the most important factor. If more people want electric cars and less want old petrol cars, then the price of petrol cars will decrease, which will make them a better value so more people are inclined to by them.
In economics this is known as market clearing.
(Note, once a car become cheaper to scrap than repair they usually are. This is true regardless of new types/features etc).
Why would they “get rid of them”? The cheapest car is always the car you already have, if it’s still roadworthy and still suits your needs. People will simply keep driving their ICE cars until they’re too old to be useful, and then they’ll sell them to wreckers and scrappers, the same way that they do today.
Also, there will always be people wanting to buy used ICE cars instead of new electric cars, because they’ll be cheaper. It will be a long time until the last mass-produced ICE cars lose all of their value as used vehicles.
The average age of cars on the road is now over 12 years. There are a few reasons for this, but part of it, at least for me, is people waiting for electric cars to come down in price. When it comes time to replace their cars many people will have no problem junking their very old cars. I expect this will hasten the transition and that average age will drop in the next decade.
Don’t overestimate the electic market. There are a lot of kinks that still need to be worked out
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/industry-pain-abounds-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown-2024-01-30/
If everyone buys cars what are we going to do with all these horses???
I personally think there will still be a high demand for Ice cars especially ones that are not 100% “modern”. Repairs are much easier and people will not want their car to be able to track their every move. Which this could be happening now but it’ll be more prevalent the more expensive and high-tech that cars get.
Good question. Why don’t you ask the people who messed up the used car market with “Cash for Clunkers” ?
It’s not happening anytime soon, the infrastructure for electric just isn’t there and won’t be for another half century
I still don’t see a used fully electric truck even going for less than $10k in current today’s value that will be able to run 50K+ miles without needing a new battery meanwhile I can find dozens/hundreds of trucks used under that amount. EV’s as they stand today are mostly for better off people financially people below the poverty line or barely middle class basically don’t own any except maybe one of those older leaf cars. For them to be mainstream people living in mobile home parks and RV parks and section 8 would have to be able to afford them eventually but I simply don’t see that happening even in 15 years at this rate. I know 0 people that own one or would even consider buying one. Most need trucks that can haul in my family and not a $40K+ truck but an older early 2010s or even 90s model.
Its not going to be hundreds of millions of people around the world.
ICE is going to remain prevalent around most of the world for at least a half century, if not more.
EVs are reporting too many problems.
Too expensive to buy.
Too expensive to repair.
Quality control issues.
Privacy violations (also Lexus).
No right to repair.
Questionable production methods.
Etc etc.
😀 well, that’s a question eh? It’ll be a matter of price of course, resale value of ICE cars will simply drop. Another thing is scrapping cars, as the market for second round spare parts shrinks, the crap value of ICE cars also drops.
I imagine as demand for ICE cars goes down, people will be forced to hang on to them for longer, then scarp them at the end of their life
In America, when we sell or trade in our used vehicles, they may be sold in foreign countries.
Just isn’t going to happen overnight like that. Its going to be slow. “Critical Mass” for electric cars requires that 1. They reach the same price as gas cars 2. Charging stations become as plentiful as gas stations. (and 3 debatably having a 30amp circuit in your garage or along your driveway.)
Even then, most people can’t just get a new car when they want one. They gotta drive what they got till it’s more expensive to repair than get a new one.
Pandemic + supply chain shortages proved there’s still plenty of demand for even used cars too.
What you’re proposing isn’t even going to happen. A better question will be what is everyone going to do with the plethora of electric vehicles needing full battery replacement when the wealthy who own them simply buy the next flavour of the month ‘in’ vehicle to own?
It won’t ever because a lot of people live in cities and they just don’t have the place to charge them.
Electric cars will always be a toy for those who have a house or at least somewhere to conveniently charge it.
For the rest of us living in apartments it’s just too impractical to have as an only car especially if can’t charge at home and charge stations are always full.
Not sure why – the question always gets poised as “EV replacement vs ICE-existing”
It’s always what type of CAR. Most of America infrastructure is built and based off CAR ownership. Look at a map. See your mall, now mostly abandoned, acres of land and buildings that haven’t had a merchant in them for 2+ years. Grocery store with a few acres of parking – that closes at 2000-2300 every night and remains closed until 0700-0800.
All that LAND with the purpose of parking a car for a few hours tops to do an activity. Same thing with major stadiums.
Again – the question is always poised as what CAR will be better, not what system should we consider. I want a study to see CAR vs train cities.
Because I think tiered railway systems are the future – not cars.
I’m not suggesting cars complelty go away, at least for us in the US, we have waaay to many super super rural places. But something like a 3 or 4 tiered railway system.
Tier 1: national railway (think AMTRAK) this system is designed with the thought process much like the interstate highway system connecting major cities together with possibility of express line from state to state.
So following the I10 (super south corridor) Sacramento would run south, stop outside Los Angeles before running east to Phenoix AZ , to Albuquerque NM, to Austin TX (either following capital to capital or major city, for Texas, Dallas or Houston.) And that would be your super south railway line, repeat that for the rest of the country for the national lines.
Next would be your regional lines. The purpose of this would be to connect major cities to your national lines. CA would have stuff like Bakersfield, San Diego, Santa Rosa, San Fransisco, etc.
Next would be your rural routes which connect up to the regionals.
The motors and engines would be electric first with comustable fuel second (LNG petroleum etc)
5/mo would be 60 a year. US census estimates 336,230,620 persons. Let’s take have of that and call those people adults.
So 160,000,000 x 60=year = 10,080,000,000 a year
160,000,000 x 100/year = 16,800,000,000 a year.
We all spend MORE than 60-100 a year on our car, between registration, tires and oil, maintenance and upkeep, insurance and fuel.
[Federal spending on highways (or, synonymously, roads)
totaled $52 billion in 2022. Most of those outlays were
for grants to state and local governments to support
their spending on capital projects. (Those governments
typically spend roughly three times as much of their own
funds on highways each year, not only on capital projects
but also to operate and maintain roads.) ](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-10/59634.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiPxNTIjJ6FAxW-kokEHZlvB-sQFnoECB8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw2PIgNmUwVoo9-RwPl0jM0C)
We need a tiered; tax-payer funded rail system.
Answer: They won’t be scrapped.
People in Western countries will have their cars “scrapped”, maybe giving them a discount on an EV in part of a govt scheme, and most of those cars will be shipped to places like India where they’ll be sold and used. They’ll still output carbon, probably more carbon given the quality of the fuel in these developing countries.
At huge cost (both monetary and carbon-wise), nothing will change, but people in Western nations will be allowed to feel smug about how much their specific country is doing to combat “climate change”.
There will always be a demand, ppl will just develop “kits” if you will to either turn the old car’s electric or make them run on the new fangled fuels of tomorrow
Everyone replaced their TV’s pretty quickly – how many big boxy CRT’s do you see these days?
Simple the vast majority of the materials that make up cars are recyclable. Which is how most cars that are beyond their useful life are currently disposed up. Assuming they aren’t run through a industrial shredder making the cost of sorting the material first more than their expected resale value.
Your assumption is that there will be a massive shift towards electric cars, globally. USA and Europe shift because of climate crisis, China shifts because of independence from oil. All other countries don’t give a fuck about EVs.
Giving the current issues with EV unpopularity among buyers, it might be a long while before we see this. It will continue to be a very gradual process, barely noticeable, that will see some IC cars sold and resold, some shipped to offshore buyers in bulk, and some eventually scrapped.
They don’t have to get rid of their combustion engine immediately, that would be counterproductive in terms of carbon emissions and resource use. People will gradually see (again depends on infrastructure, range, prices, availability, desirability) that electric vehicles are the best option and they’ll start switching on their own at their own pace, they won’t do it all at the same time and governments won’t just force that to happen because again, even if the vehicle is 100% electric, its components require energy and materials to produce and getting those and building it will produce emissions and resource extraction etc.
Same way I’ve always gotten rid of my old cars. Drive it til the wheels fall off and I’d almost pay someone to take it